Swedbank Macro Research

Archive

A list of the 50 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Estonian Economy
June 16, 2017
Winds of change in the retail market
• Profitability remains a concern • Developments across subsectors vary • Challenges ahead Sales are on the rise, but profitability remains a concern Retail trade enterprises expect their sales to rise (by 6.1% in 2017, according to a re..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
June 15, 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 171.2 in Riga and record high of 134.7 in Vilnius, but decreased to 146.4 in Tallinn
In Tallinn, affordability decreased by 7.3 points in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2016, as price growth was more than double that of wage growth. In Riga, the HAI increased by 5 points as a price pickup was comp..
Flash comment: Lithuania
June 08, 2017
Annual inflation eases marginally in May
Annual consumer price growth decelerated marginally to 3.4% in May. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation picked up to 1.8%. Higher prices of alcohol (resulted by a hike in excise duties) and fuel, as well as those of restaurant services contr..
PMI Sweden Service sector
June 05, 2017
PMI Services fell to 57.9 in May: Broad slide with emphasis on orders
Corrects erroneus e-mail subjectThe Purchasing Managers' Index for the service sector (PMI Services) fell to 57.9 in May from 60.3. The trend indicates that the rate of increase in the sector has topped out. The fall in May was mainly driven by new..
PMI Sweden
June 01, 2017
PMI fell to 58.8 in May – the fall continues
The PMI fell by 3.7 points to 58.8 in May, down from 62.5 in April. The decline in PMI was broad-based as all sub-indices contributed negatively to the PMI, with the largest drops from new orders and employment components. Nevertheless, monthly cha..
Flash comment: Lithuania
June 01, 2017
Strong broad-based GDP growth
In the first quarter of this year the Lithuanian economy expanded by 3.9%, in annual terms, and by 1.4%, in quarterly terms (seasonally adjusted). This was the most rapid annual growth rate since mid-2014. This was also a relatively broad-based..
Flash comment: Latvia
June 01, 2017
Wage growth accelerated in Q1
• Annual growth of the gross monthly wage at 7.2% in Q1 • Wages growing in almost all sectors The annual growth of the average gross monthly wage accelerated to 7.2% in the first quarter of this year after growing by 5% last year as a whole. Wage..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 31, 2017
Latvia: GDP growth speeding up and broadening
• 1Q2017 reports fastest GDP growth since 2012 • Broad cyclical upswing with almost all sectors reporting solid growth • Strong upside risks for GDP growth in 2017 to significantly exceed 3% Latvian GDP expanded by 4% YoY (up 1.6% QoQ) in 1Q 2..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 31, 2017
GDP growth in Estonia – the fastest in five years
Accelerated export growth and robust recovery of investments contributed to the GDP growthOn the output side, manufacturing, construction and domestic trade contributed the most We expect that GDP growth remains robust in 2017, but decelerates comp..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 29, 2017
Slower growth of wages reduces macroeconomic risks
• The growth of average monthly gross wages slowed to 5.7% in the first quarter. • We expect gross wages to grow by around 6% this year. The growth of the average gross monthly wage decelerated from 7.6% in 2016 to 5.7%, over the year, in the f..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 26, 2017
Wage growth surge in private sector in Q1
Nominal gross wages growth accelerated to 9.3%, while real net wages rose by 7.4% in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period a year ago. Wages in private sector increased by 10.4%, which was the highest pace since 2008. Constr..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 15, 2017
Participation rate increased further
Labour market performed better than expected in the first quarter. The labour force participation rate, i.e., the proportion of persons of working-age who are either employed or unemployed, reached a record level of 70.2%, considering seasonal fact..
Estonian Economy
May 15, 2017
Foreign direct investment – better, but there is capacity for more
Estonia is still among largest net beneficiaries from FDI in the EU Increased inflow of FDI may boost fixed capital formation in the near future FDI by country becomes more and more diversified Can FDI boost enterprises’ investments into fixed asse..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 12, 2017
Employment drops in Q1 as expected
The unemployment rate increased in the first quarter of this year to 8.0%, but was 0.3 percentage points lower than a year ago. As activity growth is close to its limit and was too low to compensate for shrinking working age population, labour forc..
PMI Sweden Service sector
May 04, 2017
Services PMI dropped to 60.3 in April: Good start to second quarter
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell by 1.0 point to 60.3 in April. The decrease came from the sub-indices for suppliers’ delivery times and employment, each of which lowered the Services PMI by about 0.5 points..
PMI Sweden
May 02, 2017
PMI fell to 62.5 in April – dropping from high level
The PMI fell by 2.7 points to 62.5 in April, down from 65.2 in March. The sub-indices for new orders and production decreased, dragging down the PMI, while the readings for employment and delivery times rose, providing a positive contribution. Whil..
Lithuanian Economy
May 02, 2017
Rising wages mask widening income inequality
Rapid wage growth, but not for everyoneIncome inequality has picked up – action requiredMain culprits - weak social safety nets and changing economy Rapid wage growth, but not for everyone Average wage growth has been rapid, and wage inequality..
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 28, 2017
Positive start of the year: GDP growth accelerates to 3.8% in Q1
The Lithuanian annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.8% in the first quarter of this year. This was the most rapid annual growth rate since mid-2014. Meanwhile, in quarterly terms, the seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.4%.
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 10, 2017
Annual inflation accelerated to 3.1% and will not ease
Annual consumer price growth accelerated to 3.1% in March, while average annual inflation picked up to 1.4%. Monthly inflation spike was caused by higher excise duties, which increased the prices of alcohol. Higher alcohol and fuel prices also cont..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
April 06, 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook - April 2017
Global: Signs of a considerable cyclical upturn in advanced economies. Inflation pressure increases, but remains low in many regions. Political risks remain although they have decreased somewhat. Sweden: Growth broadens as an upswing in exports is..
PMI Sweden Service sector
April 05, 2017
** CORRECTED**: Services PMI rose to 61.3 in March: Broad gains to new highs
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 61.3 in March from 59.8 in February. All four sub-components are clearly in the growth zone, with three of four sub-indices above the 60 mark. The March result shows that ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
April 05, 2017
Services PMI fell to 61.3 in March: Broad gains to new highs
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 61.3 in March from 59.8 in February. All four sub-components are clearly in the growth zone, with three of four sub-indices above the 60 mark. The March result shows that ..
PMI Sweden
April 03, 2017
PMI rose to 65.2 in March – Manufacturing finishes Q1 in high gear
The PMI rose by 4.3 points to 65.2 in March, up from 60.9 in February. All sub-indices added to the increase, with new orders and production providing the biggest contributions. While monthly changes should be taken with caution, the upward trend i..
Macro Focus
March 31, 2017
Brexit: the EU28 is dead, long live the EU?
The die is cast - the next move is the EU'sLimited effects of Brexit on the Baltic economies, so farBaltic interest - strong EU
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
March 09, 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 185.5 in Riga, but decreased to 151.9 in Tallinn and to 128.8 in Vilnius
In Tallinn, affordability decreased by 1.6 points in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the same period in 2015, as price growth outpacednwage growth. In Riga, the HAI increased by 25.5 points as prices and interest rates decreased. In..
PMI Sweden Service sector
March 03, 2017
Services PMI fell to 59.8 in February: Lower, but clearly in the growth zone
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell from 61.1 to 59.8 in February. All seven components were well within the growth zone. Of the four sub-indices, three declined compared with the previous reading in January. O..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 02, 2017
Wage growth accelerated in 2016
• Average wages grew in all economic sectors. • We expect the growth of average gross wages to slow from 7.6% in 2016 to around 5% in 2017. The growth of average gross wage accelerated to 7.6% in 2016. Net average wages grew rapidly too, by..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 01, 2017
Strong household consumption and recovering investment
According to revised GDP figures, the Lithuanian economy grew more rapidly in the fourth quarter of last year and in 2016 than previously estimated. The annual real GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of last year (prev. 3%), wh..
PMI Sweden
March 01, 2017
PMI fell to 60.9 in February – Very strong manufacturing conditions
The PMI fell by 1.1 points to 60.9 in February, down from 62.0 in January. The sub-indices for production and employment contributed to the monthly decrease. All sub- indices except inventories remained at levels above 59.0, however. The sub-inde..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 28, 2017
The lowest point is past – this year the growth will accelerate
According to the revised data of the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, GDP growth was +2%. As expected, investment has undergone the largest revision: even though the gross fixed capital formation declined by about 11% last year, it is much les..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 28, 2017
Economic growth in the last quarter of 2016 was above expectations
In 2016, economic growth reached 1.6% in Estonia. Compared to 2015 it is a 0.2 percentage point increase, but nothing to be too proud of yet. Nominal growth of GDP accelerated from 2.5% in 2015 to 3.3% in 2016. In the last quarter of 2016 Estonian ..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 27, 2017
Wage growth will continue; companies should focus on increasing productivity
• Average monthly nominal gross wage growth 5% in 2016 • In the Q4 the wage growth accelerated to 5.6% year-on-year • Household purchasing power growth 4.6% on average in 2016 The average monthly nominal gross wage growth slowed to 5% in 2016 co..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 27, 2017
Non-financial corporations’ sector profits decreased third year in a row
In 2016, non-financial sector profits decreased 10% in Estonia. Profits decreased third year in a row. Robust wage growth has contributed to the decrease in corporations’ profits The major share of the decrease in profits came from manufacturing, r..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 24, 2017
Public sector drives wage growth acceleration in Q4
Nominal gross wages increased by 8.7%, while real net wages rose by 7.6% in the fourth quarter of the last year compared with the same period a year ago. Wage growth continued to be driven by minimum wage hike and higher non-taxable income thre..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 21, 2017
Unemployment rate decreased to 9.3% in the Q4 of 2016
• The unemployment rate down to 9.3% in 4Q 2016 (vs. 9.8% a year earlier), on average 9.6% in 2016 (vs. 9.9% in 2015) • Employment down by 3 thsd or 0.3% last year• The unemployment rate expected to decrease more rapidly this year, to about 8.5% o..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 14, 2017
Participation rate increased further in 2016
• Labour market remained tight in 2016. • Employment is expected to marginally decline and the unemployment rate to grow in 2017. In 2016, the labour force participation rate, the share of the labour force in the working-age population, incr..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 14, 2017
Consumer prices on a rise. More to come
In January consumer prices increased by 0.3% compared with December and were 2.3% higher than a year ago. Most of the increase was due to more expensive food products and alcoholic beverages, but housing costs and most of the services were also mor..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 10, 2017
Annual inflation close to 3% in January
Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in January compared to December last year and were 2.9% higher than in January 2016. This marks the highest annual monthly inflation rate since mid-2011. 1.9% higher food prices and 4.1% higher fuel prices contribu..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 10, 2017
Unemployment down to 7.9% in 2016
The unemployment rate increased marginally in the fourth quarter of last year - to 7.6%, but was 1.2 percentage points lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for the whole last year averaged at 7.9%. The activity rate of 15-74 y..
PMI Sweden Service sector
February 03, 2017
Services PMI rose to 61.1 in January: Broad increase, but orders slow
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose from 59.9 in December to 61.1 in January. Three of four sub-components contributed positively to the main index: business volumes, suppliers’ delivery times and employment. O..
PMI Sweden
February 01, 2017
PMI rose to 62.0 in January – Manufacturing begins the year strongly
The PMI rose from 60.2 in December to 62.0 in January, its highest reading since autumn 2010. The sub-indexes for production and employment were the biggest contributors to the PMI. All sub-indexes except inventories are above the 60 mark. The sub..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 30, 2017
The economic growth is gaining pace in Latvia
• GDP growth in the Q4 accelerated to 2.1% (yoy, nsa), 1.6% for the whole year • The low point is past, growth will speed up close to 3% in 2017 • Structural reforms can ensure more rapid and sustainable growth According to the flash estimate of th..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 30, 2017
GDP increased by 2.2% in 2016
The Lithuanian economy surprised on the upside in the fourth quarter of last year as GDP picked up by 3%, in annual terms. Quarterly seasonally adjusted growth accelerated from 0.4% in the third quarter to 1.3% in the fourth quarter. GDP increas..
Macro Focus
January 27, 2017
Protectionism – no-win game, especially for the Baltics
Greater trade integration benefits overall welfareGlobal trade has slowed recently because of cyclical and structural reasonsProtectionism would hamper global economic growth – small and open economies, e.g. the Baltics, have most to loseNo quick a..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 19, 2017
Rays of light amid political clouds
Strong cyclical uptick in the business cycles of advanced economies Underlying trend growth remains weak Demography is changing drivers of economic growth
Flash comment: Latvia
January 11, 2017
Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in 2016 despite deflation in the first half of the year
Consumer prices increased by 0.6% in December 2016 compared to November in the same year. Thus annual inflation in December accelerated to 2.2%. On a monthly basis, food prices grew by 1.3% and contributed the most to the increase. Rise in heati..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 09, 2017
Annual inflation jumped to 1.7% at the end of 2016
Annual consumer price growth accelerated to 1.7% in December. Higher prices of food products (dairy products, meat), alcoholic drinks (beer), fuels, tobacco products as well as restaurant services contributed the most to annual inflation. In mon..
Flash comment: Estonia
January 06, 2017
Prices increased by 0.1% in 2016
Consumer price index increased by 0.1% in 2016. Higher excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco, and motor fuels contributed positively, while cheaper energy had the biggest negative impact on prices. The prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco were arou..
Macro Focus
January 05, 2017
Construction in Baltics will rebound for now
Contraction is temporary Residential sector is stronger, at least in Estonia and Lithuania Construction costs will rise, but export potential is there
PMI Sweden Service sector
January 04, 2017
Services PMI rose to 59.9 in December – Finishes 2016 on a high note
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose slightly from 59.8 in November to 59.9 in December, finishing 2016 at its high for the year. The sub-index for new orders was the month’s main driver, increasing from 61.3 to..

Please note that in 2014 the publication "Global Economy" changed name to "Macro Focus".

These publications are distributed by Swedbank Macro Research in co-operation with Brightly.